A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
